Winter 2024 Commentary

The economy seems to be on firm, but not quite solid, footing. While 2023 saw an acceleration of economic growth spurred by inflation (and price increases), it looks as though 2024 will experience moderating economic growth. Hence, our forecast for a ‘soft-ish’ economic landing is still on the table. As usual, there are numerous data points that have us cautious. Specifically, on the jobs front. December job openings (JOLTS report) came in weaker-than-expected at 8.79 million jobs – its lowest reading since March 2021. The hiring component within the report was the weakest since March 2020. The manufacturing sector remains cool as well. The ISM Manufacturing Index December report came in sub-50 (economic contraction) once again at 47.4. It was the fourteenth consecutive month that the manufacturing sector declined – its longest stretch since 2002! However, not all is gloom-and-doom with our domestic economy.

Winter 2023 Commentary Videos

We hope you enjoy the videos and find our comments informative and beneficial. We encourage and welcome your feedback. This video contains general market commentary and information that should not be construed as advice to make any specific investment. For investment advice, please consult with your portfolio manager. Our quarterly market commentary often contains forward-looking statements, predictions and forecasts (“forward-looking statements”) concerning our beliefs and opinions with respect to the future. Forward-looking statements necessarily involve risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Investing involves the risk of loss, including risk of loss of principal invested, that clients should be prepared to bear.

Fall 2023 Commentary Videos

We hope you enjoy the videos and find our comments informative and beneficial. We encourage and welcome your feedback. This video contains general market commentary and information that should not be construed as advice to make any specific investment. For investment advice, please consult with your portfolio manager. Our quarterly market commentary often contains forward-looking statements, predictions and forecasts (“forward-looking statements”) concerning our beliefs and opinions with respect to the future. Forward-looking statements necessarily involve risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Investing involves the risk of loss, including risk of loss of principal invested, that clients should be prepared to bear.

Fall 2023 Quarterly Commentary

Sometimes headline numbers do not tell the whole story. For example, you would think that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now third quarter economic growth estimate near 5% would have market participants dancing in the streets. Well, the opposite seems to be true. Both the stock and bond markets have been selling off of late. Stock investors are fearful that interest rates will stay higher-for-longer. Bond investors are on edge about a lack of a budget deal coming out of Washington D.C. & sticky inflation artificially buoying growth. On the surface, our economy is doing okay. However, beneath the numbers, there are signs that suggest we should put away our rose-colored sunglasses.

1Q 2023 Commentary Video

We hope you enjoy the video and find our comments informative and beneficial. We encourage and welcome your feedback. This video contains general market commentary and information that should not be construed as advice to make any specific investment. For investment advice, please consult with your portfolio manager. Our quarterly market commentary often contains forward-looking statements, predictions and forecasts (“forward-looking statements”) concerning our beliefs and opinions with respect to the future. Forward-looking statements necessarily involve risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Investing involves the risk of loss, including risk of loss of principal invested, that clients should be prepared to bear.

Spring 2023 Quarterly Commentary

The economic narrative has shifted quite dramatically in recent weeks. Coming into the year, our investment team had a more positive view than the Fed – and even many Wall Street economists. We had forecast strong, yet moderating, job growth. Inflation was ‘rolling over’. Corporate profits were okay. Q1 GDP growth estimates were even over 3%! Then came the second largest bank collapse in U.S. history on March 10th. With the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), ripples spread throughout small, medium-sized and regional bank land as to who could be next? An estimated $500 billion of savings deposits fled smaller banks to the welcoming arms of too-big-to-fail, larger banks such as JP Morgan, Bank of America, etc. Many investors wondered: Is this another Global Financial Crisis (GFC) like we experienced in 2007/08? Our answer is absolutely not!

4Q 2022 Commentary Video

We hope you enjoy the video and find our comments informative and beneficial. We encourage and welcome your feedback. This video contains general market commentary and information that should not be construed as advice to make any specific investment. For investment advice, please consult with your portfolio manager. Our quarterly market commentary often contains forward-looking statements, predictions and forecasts (“forward-looking statements”) concerning our beliefs and opinions with respect to the future. Forward-looking statements necessarily involve risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Investing involves the risk of loss, including risk of loss of principal invested, that clients should be prepared to bear.

3Q 2022 Commentary Video

We hope you enjoy the video and find our comments informative and beneficial. We encourage and welcome your feedback. This video contains general market commentary and information that should not be construed as advice to make any specific investment. For investment advice, please consult with your portfolio manager. Our quarterly market commentary often contains forward-looking statements, predictions and forecasts (“forward-looking statements”) concerning our beliefs and opinions with respect to the future. Forward-looking statements necessarily involve risks and uncertainties, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Investing involves the risk of loss, including risk of loss of principal invested, that clients should be prepared to bear.